From “selective two-child policy” to universal two-child policy: will the payment crisis of China’s pension system be solved?

China Finance and Economic Review

Table 4 Financial operation of pension fund (“selective two-child policy” is introduced)

Case	Point that deficit appears	Point that cumulative deficit appears	Cumulative deficit in 2090 (Billion yuan)	Change of cumulative deficit in 2090 (%)
“One-child policy”	2023-2037, 2059–2090	2076–2090	422,365.195	—
13% of qualified couples have the second child	2023–2037, 2059–2090	2077–2090	383,238.042	−9.26
50% of qualified couples have the second child	2023–2037, 2061–2090	2081–2090	270,235.549	−36.02
All qualified couples that satisfied the “selective two-child” have second child	2023–2037, 2066–2090	2085–2090	118,879.393	−71.85

Note: The change of cumulative deficit of pension fund in 2090 in the different situations is compares with the situation of continually implementing “one-child policy”. The 13% of qualified couples refer to couples that satisfy the requirement of “selective one-child policy”