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Table 5 Financial operation of pension fund (“20% to 100% couples that satisfy the selective two-policy” have the second child)

From: From “selective two-child policy” to universal two-child policy: will the payment crisis of China’s pension system be solved?

Case Point that deficit appears Point that cumulative deficit appears Cumulative deficit in 2090 (billion yuan) Changing of cumulative deficit in 2090 (%)
One-child policy 2023–2037, 2059–2090 2076–2090 422,365.195
13% of qualified couples have second child 2023–2037, 2060–2090 2079–2090 322,864.423 –23.56
20% of qualified couples have second child 2023–2037, 2062–2090 2081–2090 268,588.514 –36.41
40% of qualified couples have second child 2023–2037, 2068–2090 2087–2090 109,237.064 –74.14
50% of qualified couples have second child 2023–2037, 2070–2090 2089–2090 27,177.871 –93.57
60% of qualified couples have second child 2023–2037, 2073–2090 –56,475.435 –113.37
80% of qualified couples have second child 2023–2037, 2078–2090 –228,579.784 –154.12
All qualified couples have second child 2023–2037, 2082–2090 –407,106.786 –196.39
  1. Note: “—” refers to that cumulative deficit of pension fund would not appear before 2090. That the cumulative deficit is –228,579.784 billion means the cumulative balance is 228,579.784 billion. Thirteen percent of qualified couples have second child refers to 13% of couples that satisfy the “universal two-child policy” would have the second child