Skip to main content
China Finance and Economic Review

Table 6 Results of sensitivity analysis

From: From “selective two-child policy” to universal two-child policy: will the payment crisis of China’s pension system be solved?

Case “One-child policy” 13% of couples that satisfy the “universal two-child policy” having second child 50% of couples that satisfy the “universal two-child policy” having second child All couples that satisfy the “universal two-child policy” having second child
Growth rate of payment base Point that cumulative deficit appears 2078–2090 2081–2090 — —
Cumulative deficit in 2090 (billion yuan) 447,346.313 324,588.334 –52,137.553 –602,675.559
Bank interest Point that cumulative deficit appears 2074–2090 2077–2090 2087–2090 —
Cumulative deficit in 2090 (billion yuan) 52,413.865 419,247.827 96,735.135 –372,121.438
Retirement age Point that cumulative deficit appears 2034–2090 2034–2062, 2074–2090 2034–2048 2034–2044
Cumulative deficit in 2090 (billion yuan) 461,468.111 361,492.877 6,449.978 –37,155.057
Individual account Point that cumulative deficit appears 2081–2090 2088–2090 — —
Cumulative deficit in 2090 (billion yuan) 95,958.828 20,963.156 –201,039.003 –525,888.456
Earlier retirement Point that cumulative deficit appears 2065–2090 2068–2090 2078–2090 —
Cumulative deficit in 2090 (billion yuan) 717,578.037 667,827.651 319,984.375 –148,872.198
  1. Note: The benchmark assumption is clearly described in the third part of this paper. The payment base here is 0.5% higher than the assumption, namely 7.5% in the year from 2015 to 2020. The growth rate decreased by 0.5% every 5 years until to 2%. The bank interest rate is 0.5% higher than the assumption, namely 3%. The new retirement age scheme regulates that the retirement age is delayed by 4 months every year until the retirement age reaches 65. The individual account simulates the financial operation of pension fund in the situation of funding the individual account. “Earlier retirement” stimulates the employee retiring 3 years ahead of than the expected (statutory) retirement age
Back to article page