Table 6 Results of sensitivity analysis
Case | “One-child policy” | 13% of couples that satisfy the “universal two-child policy” having second child | 50% of couples that satisfy the “universal two-child policy” having second child | All couples that satisfy the “universal two-child policy” having second child | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Growth rate of payment base | Point that cumulative deficit appears | 2078–2090 | 2081–2090 | — | — |
Cumulative deficit in 2090 (billion yuan) | 447,346.313 | 324,588.334 | –52,137.553 | –602,675.559 | |
Bank interest | Point that cumulative deficit appears | 2074–2090 | 2077–2090 | 2087–2090 | — |
Cumulative deficit in 2090 (billion yuan) | 52,413.865 | 419,247.827 | 96,735.135 | –372,121.438 | |
Retirement age | Point that cumulative deficit appears | 2034–2090 | 2034–2062, 2074–2090 | 2034–2048 | 2034–2044 |
Cumulative deficit in 2090 (billion yuan) | 461,468.111 | 361,492.877 | 6,449.978 | –37,155.057 | |
Individual account | Point that cumulative deficit appears | 2081–2090 | 2088–2090 | — | — |
Cumulative deficit in 2090 (billion yuan) | 95,958.828 | 20,963.156 | –201,039.003 | –525,888.456 | |
Earlier retirement | Point that cumulative deficit appears | 2065–2090 | 2068–2090 | 2078–2090 | — |
Cumulative deficit in 2090 (billion yuan) | 717,578.037 | 667,827.651 | 319,984.375 | –148,872.198 | |